see how Marine Le Pen could win the French presidency
BOND-MARKET nerves and narrowing polls have drawn fresh attention to the risk of a President Marine Le Pen in France this spring. Since the start of 2017, the leader of the nationalist Front National (FN) has consistently topped voting intentions for the first round of the presidential election, which takes place on April 23rd. No poll this year, though, has suggested that she might win the second-round run-off on May 7th. Under the country’s directly elected two-round presidency, she needs to win an absolute majority of votes cast. This sets the bar high—but, arithmetically, it could happen. The last time Ms Le Pen stood for the presidency, in 2012, she secured 6.4m votes, or 18%. Turn-out in French presidential elections is consistently high, at about 80% of the 46m on the electoral register; some 75% cast an unspoilt ballot paper. Assuming that turn-out remained the same this year, she would therefore need the backing of just over 17.4m voters in the second r...